View From Japan
Innovation Doesn't Come
Second Hand

When they're scraping the barrel the question on everybody's lips is: "Can the Japanese move beyond imitation of Western technology and develop something world-beating of their own?"

This is mainly asked with the famous fifth generation of computers in mind. The fifth generation, you will know by now, is the means by which we develop computers of such awesome power that no task will be beyond them. Once the fifth generation machines get into their stride many of our great outstanding problems will be solved - the first biscuit in the packet will not crumble, chewing gum won't lose its flavour on the bedpost overnight, and all tables will have legs of precisely equal length.

Disregarding the fact that the fourth generation has made virtually no impact - apparently great leaps forward in computer development skip a generation, like alcoholism - Japan is pressing ahead with the fifth. It has been remarkably open in talking about what it hopes to achieve and it has even gone so far as to invite decadent Westerners to submit proposals for contributions.

But ever since the fifth generation was first publicly discussed three years ago, Westerners have looked askance at it, regarding it as the final piece in Japan's design for world domination of the computer industry (and hence of all other industries). The UK's response is typical: a committee (and probably the appropriate number of sub-committees) will dole out cash to anybody with a piece of research work to fund. Meanwhile Sir Clive announces that Sinclair Research will provide the UK with fifth generation technology, have no fear. The result will be a large number of IBM-compatibles by courtesy of Government money and a semi-intelligent electric Morris Traveller from Sir Clive.

None of this will matter if the Japanese prove themselves incapable of real innovation. They have such a long history of reliance on Western technology that they may be unable to kick the habit.

When did this reliance start? Probably list century, when it dawned on the Japanese that this was the age of the train. British railway engineers, who in those days would turn any mephitic swamp or barren dustbowl into a marshalling yard at the drop of a hat, duly obliged.

This came in handy not long afterwards when Japan was able to stage an even more impressive demonstration of what it could do with someone else's technology. Around the turn of the century there was a little unpleasantness with Russia, and in the absence of the UN, divine intervention or ACAS the Imperial Russian Baltic Fleet sailed round most of the worst rout since the Spanish Armada. We weren't told whether some cucumber-cool Japanese commander insisted on finishing a game of Majong before setting sail to deal with the Russians, but it seems more likely that the European-built ships possessed by the British-trained sons of Nippon were what made most of the difference.

Since then, the story has become familiar around the world. What the Japanese do best, it tells us, is exploit the technology developed by white Caucasians (nothing to do with Russia, by the way) who are assumed to enjoy a monopoly on inventiveness. In view of the success of Japan in the last few decades this might seem to be enough, but now there's the prospect of Japan taking the initiative.

Does it have the capacity? If throwing money around is the answer, clearly it does. If organisation - co-ordination of effort - is the answer, again it obviously does. But what about the creative spark?

There must be more doubt on this score. You have only to look at the Japanese approach to home computers - MSX Basic and a Z80. Then there's the relatively slight use they make of a technology that is by definition perfect for them - Uncommitted Logic Arrays. ULAs are totally inscrutable. Where other chips can be bought, imitated, second source, etc ULAs are so impenetrable it isn't worth trying.

So what are the chances of fifth generation computers first seeing the light of day in Japan? My guess is that it will depend on how much help they get from the rest of the world.