Behind the news that Sinclair and Commodore dominated the Christmas sales table (page 3), there are signs that a more significant change is taking place in the home computer market.

For a start, home computer sales this Christmas were no higher than in the previous year. This has led some prophets of doom to forecast that the great home computer boom is over. But as always, the entrails of Christmas require careful reading.

In terms of actual machines, sales may have levelled out. But sales of software, peripherals and upgrades have surprised some retailers.

"Overall, we probably sold about the same value as in previous years, but fewer computers," says John Flatman, merchandise controller for Boots. "The peripherals and software business was very buoyant and disk drives sold particularly well," he added.

"Sales were really good, well up on last year," said Richard Francis, retail operations controller for Dixons.

"The principal reason for this was our special promotion like the Commodore business outfit, which bundled the C64 with disk drive and printer," he added.

On the software front games continued to dominate the sales chart but as with the hardware, the winners were the big names with top selling titles.

Simon Treasure, managing director of market research company RAM/C, agrees that software sold well over Christmas. "The big dozen software houses did particularly well but after that sales started to fall away very rapidly."

In the peripherals sector, equipment related to games playing, such as joysticks, did best of all.

So why the trend away from hardware to software and peripherals? First, most people who are likely to buy a home micro have already bought one or had one bought for them.

Second, having acquired a micro, most users now want to put it to work, usually as a games machine. Hence the sales of games software and peripherals like joysticks.

Christmas also confirmed that the shakeout of the computer industry is well under way. Sinclair and Commodore increased their stranglehold of the market because quality software for these machines is so abundant.

This creates a vicious circle. The reason for the abundance of software is the large user base for the Spectrum and the C64.

The good news is that these machines should continue to be good sellers for some time.

The bad news is that users could find themselves locked into a dependence on these machines, both of which are beginning to look dated.

Commodore admittedly appears to be making the right move with the US launch of the C128 - a machine that offers a higher performance while maintaining compatibility with the C64.

An alternative strategy is to diversify into other areas such as the business market. But Sinclair's and Commodore's attempts to tap the low-priced end of this market have not been markedly successful.

Both the QL and the Plus/4 have flopped as volume sellers, probably because neither has appealed to the top end of the home market (no games software). Nor have they appealed to the serious business user who is probably looking for something that has proper disk drives and is compatible with existing office machines.

The continued growth of games software suggests that home micros are still seen by the buying public as a home entertainment product.

Which is probably where MSX could come in. Sony has already demonstrated a home micro with a video interface that can be used to generate titles on home vidoes. Yamaha's MSX machine can be used to drive its electric organs.

In the not too distant future we are likely to see home micros that can interface with video disk players, opening up the possibility of interactive video games.

Whichever way you look at it, no home computer manufacturer - least of all British manufacturers - can afford to rest on its laurels.

In the games machine market, Sinclair and Commodore have effectively seen off the opposition. Anyone wanting to stay in the volume computer business would do best to concentrate on the next generation of machines that the buying public will want.