Forecasting is a two part package. Part 1 teaches you forecasting techniques and part 2 is an applications program allowing you to use the techniques. There is a 60 page manual accompanying the software.

The manual is a notable feature of this package. It is virtually a course on forecasting techniques. It brings out just the right points and is better than many textbooks on the subject. The instructions for using the programs are clearly explained and I encountered no hitches at all, a refreshing change. I have only one criticism. The smoothing constant in the trend equations should never be as high as 0.6. That apart, all the other statistics seemed sound.

Part 1, the teaching program, is worked through in conjunction with the manual. The style and method of presentation represented one of the best examples of computer aided learning I've seen. The range of forecasting techniques covered set you up to use the quite elaborate applications program.

The applications program is based around several menus and allows sophisticated manipulation of data. The only factor stopping this program becoming a serious commercial package is that you are limited to seven variables with a maximum of 48 readings. Nevertheless this is adequate for many applications.

The date enter option allows you to give names to your variable and is very user-friendly. You can save your data to tape or disc and you can reload and edit it as required.

A separate menu allows you to transform your data, e.g. to convert all the readings of a stipulated variable to their log equivalents. There is also a time lag option, particularly relevant in forecasting applications. There are two major analysis options. The time series analysis option allows you to take into account seasonality and trends and use Holt's smoothing method where appropriate. The other major option is multiple regression analysis. You are given a lot of control over how you want the analysis performed.

Finally, when the computer has done the required analysis, you can save and print the results and use the equations to forecast. I tried out the program on data concerning crop yields, levels of rainfall and hours of sunshine. The calculated ressults tallied with my previous calculations although I still can't tell you whether 1985 is going to be a scorcher.

My only major complaint is that the package makes no provision for non-Commodore printers. Users of serious software are most likely to have non-Commodore printers so this is a strange oversight. Apart from this the package is excellent and I forecast good sales.

L.C.